Women are dominating early voting so far in the 2024 election, raising concerns among some allies of former President Donald Trump.
According to NBC News’ tracker of early ballot returns, women are outpacing men in voting nationally and in all battleground states. Of the more than 58 million mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally, 54 percent were cast by women and 44 percent by men.
The swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina have at least a 10-point gap between men and women in early voting. As of 2 a.m. Thursday, the gender gap was the widest in Pennsylvania, with women taking about 56 percent of the early vote, and men about 43 percent.
Pennsylvania, the biggest battleground state, is key for both Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, and both have campaigned more in the state than any other as polls show a tight race in the final days of the campaign. Newsweek Trump and the Harris campaign have been contacted for comment by email.
While it’s not known how early-voting women have voted, the numbers are troubling Trump supporters who fear it indicates he won’t win in November.
“The primary vote has been disproportionately women. If men stay home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple,” said Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point, an organization that has become a powerful ally of the Trump campaign. wrote on X, formerly Twitter. .
“Male turnout in Pennsylvania has been a disaster for Trump,” wrote right-wing political commentator Mike Cernovich. He added: “Until that changes, Kamala Harris takes the PA. [Pennsylvania] And it’s over.”
Harris has made defending abortion rights a centerpiece of her campaign — an issue that has become an electoral liability for Republicans — and has targeted women of all races and educations, including Republican women dissatisfied with the former president.
Early voting data is encouraging Democrats who see women as key to getting Harris to the White House.
“The gender gap is a cause for hope among Democrats and concern among Republicans, especially as many states put abortion rights amendments on their ballots in the 2024 election,” said Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University. “ Newsweek.
Miller, who uses betting markets rather than traditional polls to predict election outcomes, added that women “vote at a higher percentage than men. So, it’s not surprising that women are are outperforming men in early voting of the year.”
However, it’s unclear whether the increased turnout among women is only beneficial for Harris, as Trump has seen success in his recent calls to get Republicans to cast their ballots before Election Day. After attacking all forms of early voting before
More registered Republicans than Democrats had cast mail-in or in-person ballots in the battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia as of early Thursday, though Democrats were facing Republicans in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who tracks early voting data as part of his United States Elections Project, told Politico, “We see an increase in voting for Republicans of all genders—men and women. have been.” “It’s just that women are still ahead and keeping pace.”
Update 10/31/24, 7:50 am: This article has been updated to include a comment from Thomas Miller.