Will Donald Trump Carry Pennsylvania? What do recent polls suggest?

Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a campaign rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on October 29, aiming to win over voters in a critical battleground state that both presidential candidates see as crucial to winning the upcoming election.

Polls in recent weeks show Republican presidential candidate Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris neck and neck, with their lead falling within the margin of error of most polls.

An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted between Oct. 26 and 27 showed Trump leading Harris by one percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.46 percent.

Another recent poll of American Greatness conducted by North Star Opinion Research shows the two candidates in a dead heat with 47 percent. The poll, conducted between October 22 and 26, surveyed 600 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The survey noted that the sample included more Democrats than Republicans, and said the results reflect a large shift toward early voting for Republicans.

Newsweek The Trump and Harris campaigns were reached for comment by email.

Another poll by Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania shows Trump ahead of Harris at 48 percent to 49 percent. The poll was conducted between Oct. 21 and 22 with a sample of 860 likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.

The pollster noted that there have been no major changes since their last poll in late September.

Former US President Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate, speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. She and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in a must-win state.


Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

“There is a significant age divide among voters: voters under 50 favored Harris, 57 percent to 39 percent, while voters over 50 favored Trump,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. in favor, 57 percent to 41 percent,” Spencer Kimball said.

Kimball noted that 85 percent of Pennsylvania voters decided a month ago who to support, and that voter turnout is slightly in Trump’s favor. Meanwhile, recent decision-makers, albeit a small group, lean toward Harris.

Trump’s upcoming rally in Pennsylvania has drawn protests from Allentown’s large Puerto Rican community, after a comedian made a racist joke about Puerto Rico at Trump’s last rally in New York City’s Madison Square Garden. Expected to happen.

Trump won the state by a narrow margin of 0.72 percent against Hillary Clinton in 2016. President Joe Biden won it by an even narrower margin of 1.17 percent over Trump in 2020.

While both Trump and Harris are vying for a lead in several key states, Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is considered the most important.

Pennsylvania is also often considered the Bell State. According to calculations by polling expert Nate Silver, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has a more than 90 percent chance of winning the election.

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