Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the swing state of Pennsylvania, according to a new Monmouth University poll.
Both candidates are in the heat in the Keystone State, which remains the focus of their campaigns today. The survey found that 42 percent of likely voters were preparing to vote for each candidate, while another 5 percent said they would “probably” vote for each candidate.
Fifty percent of respondents said they would definitely not vote for Kamala Harris, while 49 percent said the same about Donald Trump.
The poll shows a one-point drop for Harris since the last Monmouth poll in September, while Trump’s support has increased by two points. However, these changes are within the margin of error, the report said: “The current results represent a statistically significant movement from the Monmouth, Pennsylvania poll conducted five weeks ago.”
Trump maintained his strongest support among white voters without a college degree, with 60 percent of respondents in that group backing him to Harris’ 35 percent.
In contrast, Harris strengthened his support by a degree among voters, who split 58-37 in his favor. Voters from black, Hispanic or other minority backgrounds also voted heavily for Harris, with 62 percent of that group supporting the Democratic nominee.
Newsweek Harris and the Trump campaigns were contacted by email for comment for this story.
The Monmouth University poll was conducted Oct. 24-28, with a sample size of 824 Pennsylvanians, all of whom were registered voters.
With 19 Electoral College votes, Pennsylvania is the largest swing state in this election and is widely predicted to be a tipping point state in 2020.
While President Joe Biden won the state last election, Trump won it in 2016, so both candidates are looking to recreate the past in Pennsylvania.
For Harris, Pennsylvania is critical to his Midwest strategy. Along with the region’s other swing states, Michigan and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania gave it exactly 270 Electoral College votes after joining Nebraska’s second district.
On the other hand, Trump needs to flip at least one of those Midwestern states, and Pennsylvania seems the most likely to flip. With a higher proportion of white voters without a college degree, the state leans more toward Trump’s base than the other two.
Combined with Georgia and North Carolina, Pennsylvania would give Trump exactly 270 Electoral College votes.
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