Vice President Kamala Harris has widened her lead over Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump in two national polls.
With just over a week to go until Election Day, the latest ABC News/Ipsos and Big Village polls give Harris a slightly larger lead than they polled in early October.
But with his lead narrowing to the margin of error in polls and other national polls showing the race has tightened, Harris and Trump appear locked in a tight race that likely reaches fewer voters. will go as both try to take enough battleground states. To win in the Electoral College.
In the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, Harris has a four-point lead among likely voters, with 51 percent support to Trump’s 47 percent. His lead is smaller among all registered voters, 49 percent to Trump’s 47 percent.
The poll, conducted online between October 18 and 22, surveyed 2,392 registered voters and 1,913 likely voters. The margin of error was 2 percentage points for registered voters and 2.5 percentage points for likely voters.
Newsweek The campaigns of both Harris and Trump were reached by email Monday for comment.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted earlier this month gave Harris a two-point lead among both likely voters (Trump’s 48 percent to 50 percent) and registered voters (49 percent to 47 percent).
The survey, conducted online between Oct. 4 and 8, surveyed 2,226 registered voters and 1,714 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points for registered voters and 2.5 percentage points for likely voters.
Meanwhile, a recent Big Village poll has Harris leading Trump by nearly seven points.
The poll found that 51.6 percent of likely voters support Harris, compared to 45 percent for Trump. Among registered voters, Harris led by nearly six points, with 49 percent support compared to Trump’s 43.2 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,592 likely voters and 1,739 registered voters between Oct. 18 and Oct. 23 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent.
A Big Village poll conducted in early October had Harris leading by a small margin among both registered and likely voters. Harris had 48.7 percent of registered voters to Trump’s 44.6 percent, and 49.9 percent of likely voters to Trump’s 46.4 percent.
The poll was conducted between Oct. 2 and 4 among 755 likely voters and 841 registered voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
“The national polls are so close that it’s easy to read too much into the small details. How does the Electoral College benefit Trump? Harris likely has a net margin in the popular vote of 3-4 percentage points to clear that hurdle. will be needed.” Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science at University College London and director of the Center on US Politics, said. Newsweek.
“Polls in swing states still matter more than anything else, and there’s nothing in these numbers to suggest the race is anything but a tossup in this late stage.”
Kostas Panagopoulos, professor of political science at Northeastern University, said Newsweek that national polls “show essentially a tight race, usually within the margin of error” and battleground polls “look similar.”
He said: “We don’t really know which candidate is really ahead. Given voting patterns across the country, a comfortable margin in the national popular vote would help Harris win the Electoral College, but A close split may still be possible.”
Grant Davis-Rehr, professor of political science at Syracuse University, said Newsweek that the race “is still really tight, and it’s anyone’s guess as to the outcome.”
“A lot still depends on how those poll results are weighted, and with coalitions shifting and new groups of voters coming into the system, those weights are moving targets. Battleground states are now are also key, and they’re all tough.”
He added: “At this point, it comes down to turnout. Republicans have quickly embraced early voting, and that might help them a little bit. There’s not a lot of progress in either campaign. , which is hard to imagine given everything we’ve already seen and heard, the convincing part of the campaign is over.”
Harris leads nationally by 1.4 percentage points as of Sunday, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average.
She was ahead by 2.6 points at the start of October. His largest lead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average was 3.7 points on August 23 after he entered the race in late July.
Update 10/28/24, 10:10 am ET: This article has been updated to include comments from Costas Panagopoulos and Grant Davis Reeher.