Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump nationally, according to the results of a massive new poll, with just over a week to go before Election Day.
Preliminary data from the Cooperative Election Study (CES) released Monday shows Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points out of 48,732 likely voters, with 51 percent polling for the vice president and 47 percent for the former president. supported
CES is the largest academic US poll, with a total of 78,247 adults participating. Harris led Trump 51 percent to 46 percent among all adults surveyed and 52 percent to 46 percent among respondents who said they had already voted or would “definitely” vote.
Newsweek Harris and Trump reached out for comment on the campaigns Monday via email.
Unlike other recent polls, the CES poll found Harris had a slim lead over Trump among male likely voters, winning the demographic 49 percent to 48 percent. Democratic candidates lead with women voters by a margin of 53 percent to 45 percent.
Harris also did better than usual among white voters in the survey, with Trump winning the group by a relatively small margin of 51 percent to 47 percent. Black voters supported Harris by a margin of 77 percent to 21 percent, while Hispanics favored him by 58 percent to 40 percent.
Among voters who voted for Trump in 2020, 95 percent said they would do so this year, with 4 percent casting their vote for Harris. Another 95 percent of those who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 said they would support Harris this year, while 3 percent would vote for Trump instead.
Harris had a 51 percent to 42 percent advantage among non-voters in the 2020 election. Of all likely voters, a total of 3 percent said they were undecided.
No margin of error was noted for the CES survey, which was administered by YouGov and was conducted from October 1 to October 25. CES will survey those same voters after the election, including “matching respondents to voter files to identify who actually turned out to vote.”
Several other recent national polls have featured tight races, with Trump and Harris trading small leads or even ties. An average of recent polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight showed Harris with a 1.4-point lead as of Monday.
The polls also show a close contest in key battleground states, which will likely decide the winner of the Electoral College and the presidency.
In four of the seven states considered most likely to swing the election, Monday’s overall polling average of 538 split the candidates by 0.3 points or less. In three other battleground states, Trump has a lead of less than 2 percentage points.