Don’t trust Trump swings in polling, prediction markets.

Data expert Nate Silver is known for making big calls at polls and at the poker table, and right now, those two worlds have collided as both polls and betting markets build momentum for Donald Trump and a week for Kamala Harris. shows a reduction in time less than Going before the 2024 presidential election.

Silver has been on record since last week saying the odds are in Trump’s favor — he made his call in a New York Times op-ed — but he also chalked it up to “gut instinct” rather than more specific data science. Described In an interview with CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” anchor Jon Forte at the CNBC Technology Executive Council Summit in New York City on Tuesday, Silver offered several big warnings about the current polling and betting markets.

Silver told Forte that his current model shows the odds in favor of Trump, who has a 55% to 45% chance of winning over Harris.

But he also said that for any anecdote he could offer as to why Trump’s momentum is on the rise, “there is a counterexample.”

Trump’s momentum in the polls has reduced or erased Harris’ lead in some key swing states, but Silver says he thinks that after two consecutive cycles in which the polls were “very bad” and polling from 2016 to now. The industry has been criticized a lot. , “A lot of pollsters are throwing up their hands.”

“They’re printing a tie,” Silver said at the CNBC event, citing a hypothetical pollster’s conversation: “‘Harris up 3%? Let’s say 1%. Trump up to 4? Let’s say 1.5%. That’s what we’re talking about.’ Shepherds say, “where people are attracted to consensus they don’t want their opinion.”

Another factor that could skew the polls is if Trump voters are more “charged and excited,” which could cause them to turn out at higher polls than they historically have, and lean toward Harris. may force voters to turn out less at the polls.

Political polling is never as accurate as people expect, Silver said, adding that in most scenarios if you sampled a 52%-48% lead and it came out the other way around, it would still be pretty close. But political polling is an exception, and it’s getting harder and harder to get things right for elections.

Polls have been “regularly, across the board” three to four points lower in recent polls, Silver said, so recent small swings in the polls in Trump’s favor have been “inflicted with uncertainty.” … Basically, eliminating the noise,” he said.

Five percent of people respond to the poll, “and they’re weird,” Silver said.

Most people no longer even have the landline phones that the polling history of past election cycles relied on. “Old white people answer the phone, but others vote,” he added.

Why betting markets can be all ‘vibe and chatter’

Betting markets show a huge lead for Trump, big bets are placed on the polly market, Robin Hood gets in on the action, and presidential election contracts grow in popularity.

Recent action in stocks and bonds by Wall Street research reports from major banks and billionaire investors, including Ken Griffin and Stanley Drunkin-Miller, points to more confidence in Trump’s second term. Shares of Trump mediawhich runs the former president’s Truth Social social media platform, also surged in recent trading, though they are highly volatile, down 22 percent on Wednesday.

Critics have raised concerns that election betting markets are potentially being manipulated. But Silver, an adviser to one of the leading market predictors, Polymarket, says he won’t pay too much attention to the betting market data right now, as it may not be accurate at this point in the election cycle. In principle, they can account for additional information such as early voting and historical data, but there is limited historical data on elections for prediction markets to use as a basis for accuracy, due to Most of these calls are “calibrated based on vibe and chatter”. Instead of useful information, Silver said.

Nate Silver during an interview with CNBC’s Jon Forte at the CNBC Technology Executive Council Summit on October 29, 2024 in New York City.

CNBC

There are distinct moments in time when prediction markets work. Within minutes of the Trump-Biden debate ending, Silver said, the prediction markets knew it was bad for Biden, and possibly also signaled a tougher race for Trump. And on election night itself, there are a lot of smart people who can vote county by county and know which way the election is going. But right now, Silver said, what these markets are seeing may be a sign that they “may be a little off” in their beliefs, rather than proving that they “can buck the conventional wisdom. are”, that’s what good data analysis does. .

Real money is made in bets that can lead to massive returns. Trump is not as good for gambling as he was in 2016. In that election, the Silver model gave Trump a 29% chance of winning, nearly double Trump’s odds in most polls. For the gambler, it was a situation in which one winning bet had to risk meeting all the losers many times over. Not so this time. In the current prediction markets, Trump has 66% to 34% support over the vice president. And that’s with polls and models showing a tighter race, putting Harris in a position to be the better bet.

Still, Silver says of the current polls and the latest data, “Anyone who is confident about the election is someone whose opinion you should discount.”

All the reasons why Trump won and Harris lost

There are several reasons why Silver considers Harris to be weak. Inflation and immigration are among Harris’ losing issues that he inherited from the Biden administration, he said, adding that Biden was so unpopular with voters that he had to drop out of the race, and even if inflation is under control. Yes, prices are still too high. Compared to four years ago.

Around the world, he noted, incumbent parties are having a tough time at the polls. The poker player in Silver – he has won more than $800,000 in his lifetime as a professional player – described Harris as a “tough hand to play”.

On the other hand, silver note Democrats have won five of the last six popular votes, abortion is a major liability for the Republican Party in this election, and Democrats are generally good at getting voters to vote, while Trump has More or less removed by hand. That responsibility falls to Elon Musk, who has no experience in campaigning. Even here, though, he added a caveat that this election could be one in which the surprising turnout helps Trump more than Harris.

“First-time voters aren’t as blue-collar as they usually are,” Silver said. He described the liberal-leaning first-time voter as “unaffected” by larger structures like the Democratic Party, though he stressed that this was a fundamental shift and not specifically tied to the politics of the Israel-Gaza war.

“It’s become less likely to vote for Harris,” Silver said.

Recent polling data shows that young black, Latino and Asian American voters are migrating to Trump in a way that defies historical trends. “That’s where he’s grown the most,” Silver added.

He cited the example of 18-year-olds voting for the first time and who would have been 10 when Trump was first elected as first-time voters who are unlikely to have any concerns since Trump has been in office. have to face And for young black voters, Silver said, the civil rights era is a distant memory, which can sever historic ties to the Democratic Party.

Young voters, in particular, Silver said, are “disaffected post-Covid.”

Silver doesn’t think Democrats made a mistake in replacing Biden at the top of the ticket. “Biden was on the verge of losing in a landslide … all the swing states would have gone for Trump … he [the Democrats] “They were saved from certain death,” he said. Harris thought that, in the short term, they “ran on vibes.” In his view, Harris’ team did not have a long-term message, and “didn’t think. How will it go until November.”

One advantage Harris has is that she remains more popular than Trump, for a variety of reasons, including his convictions. He said that Trump is far from being the best candidate.

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